May26, 2020

Andrew Campbell 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released the latest forecast predicting the Atlantic hurricane season in 2020. The forecast predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season.

A division of the National Weather Service in NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting 13 to 19 storms at winds of 39 mph or higher, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes at winds of 74 mph or higher, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.

According to NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions, similar to climate activities in 1995, it remains El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition or trends toward La Nina, the warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, during 2020 hurricane season.

In addition, other conditions outlook warmer-than-average sea surface in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, coupled with weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, below-average Atlantic wind shear and an above-average West African monsoon. A combination of these climate factors is driving the above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2020.