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Africa's new population will cause havoc in Europe
December 24,2021／Austin Kuan
Since 2015, a large number of Middle Eastern and African refugees have fled to Europe. It is estimated that at least 1.3 million people entered the European Union region illegally or legally that year. International refugees continue to flood into the European Union area to this day, and the trend has not changed.
As long as a refugee successfully enters the European Union, he is free to move freely among the 27 member states, and he has a lot of options for his future. Although the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Norway are not members of the European Union, Germany and France are large enough to absorb large numbers of refugees and are very appealing.
When a refugee arrives in Greece from Turkey, he usually does not stay. Despite the fact that Greece has attracted a large number of international tourists, he would still take a boat to Italy, and then to Germany or France, if he were a refugee. Since 2015, Germany has taken in one million legal refugees, many of whom have taken low-wage jobs in Germany. As a result, accepting refugees appears to be a good deed. In fact, it is extremely beneficial to the development of the German economy.
In 2021, three Nobel Prize winners in economics collaborated on research that confirmed that immigrants are beneficial to a country's economic development. The late Apple Computer CEO Steve Jobs' biological father was a Syrian immigrant. If Assume Jobs' biological father had not come to the United States from Syria, today, the global smartphone history might be rewritten.
When most people in Europe think of refugees, they think of the war in Afghanistan, the civil war in Syria, or the turmoil in African countries. Many locals are forced to flee in search of a more stable living environment. Even if there is no war, the social systems or government governance capabilities of many Middle Eastern or African countries will drive higher-income or better-educated people to immigrate for the next generation's development. Of course, they will be more formalized; they will immigrate through the channels rather than fleeing all the way to become international refugees.
However, there is one crucial factor that is rarely mentioned. That is, the global population is still growing, with south of the Sahara Desert in Africa experiencing the fastest growth. In Europe, France and Germany will experience stagnant growth and population decline. From a short-term standpoint, it may be difficult to see how significant the impact is, but when the time spans to 2050, an astonishing trend will be discovered to be taking shape.
Looking ahead to 2022 from the end of 2021, it appears that many things are easy to predict, but there is also a high possibility of prediction errors, because a random event can change the original prediction result. If you are a senior executive in the aviation industry, the company's performance growth in 2020 is estimated to reach 20% in the report submitted to the board of directors at the end of 2019, because the company recently purchased 6 new aircraft and opened two new aircraft routes. However, as we later discovered, the new crown pneumonia caused significant losses in the global aviation industry in 2020. So don't think that predicting the coming year is easy. But what's interesting is that sometimes, looking ahead to 2022 from the distant 2050s, the accuracy rate will be very high, especially on issues like population.
From the beginning of 2020 to the end of November 2021, at least 5 million people died as a result of the new crown pneumonia. This is, indeed, the disaster that resulted in the greatest number of deaths following World War II. However, the global population has increased by more than 150 million people in less than two years, and new infectious diseases have not changed the trend of global population growth.
Changes in the number of populations, especially in the birth rate and the degree of population aging, with the methods developed by current statistics, almost all of them can accurately calculate the future trend changes, and the accuracy can be as high as 95 percent. As a result, using changes in population trends to forecast a country's social welfare policy, economic development strategy, or to estimate the possible direction of global population movement is a useful indicator. Just as you cannot expect a country with a rapidly aging population to experience rapid economic growth, you cannot expect a country with one-third of its population under the age of 18 to maintain its political and social systems. Only by making good use of demographic trends can we formulate a reasonable long-term development strategy for a country, according to academics.
The United Nations issued a global population forecast from 2050 to 2100 in 2019, which is worth noting. According to this report, the global population will rise from 7.7 billion in 2020 to 9.7 billion in 2050, representing a 26 percent increase.
If you're Japanese, you'll think the United Nations' 2019 report is a ruse, because Japan has entered a period of declining population, and Japan has extremely strict immigration policies. Unless you're at a festival or on the busiest street in Tokyo, you'll get the impression that Japan's population is declining. Japan's population is expected to fall from 126 million in 2020 to 106 million in 2050, a total of 20 million people. So, how can you believe that the world will add 2 billion more people if you live in Japan?
If you're a German, you'll think the United Nations' 2019 report is a little exaggerated. Germany, like Japan, has entered a period of declining population year by year, but because Germany will accept a large number of refugees, its population has not yet begun to decline negatively. However, in countries where Christianity is the dominant religion, such as Germany, more than 80% of the immigrants accepted are Muslims. It is reasonable to expect that the process of integration between the two parties will be difficult, and it may even have an impact on the ruling party's votes. Because the number of immigrants accepted by Germany changes year after year, it is not a consistent and estimable statistical factor. However, if Germany no longer accepts immigrants, its population will fall from 82 million in 2020 to 75 million in 2050. Germany will gradually deteriorate and will no longer be as powerful as it is today. Assume that Germany is willing to accept 7 million immigrants between now and 2050, so that its total population does not decrease, but that at least 20% of Germany's population structure will be immigrants from the Middle East and Africa, with the majority of them practicing Islam. It is certain to have a significant impact on the original German people.
However, if you are a Nigerian living in West Africa, you will believe that this United Nations report from 2019 is completely accurate, because you have observed the crowds around you, which have become so dense that they suffocate you. Nigeria's land area is only 9% that of the United States, but its population will more than double from 210 million in 2021 to 410 million in 2050, while during this time, the number of people in the United States will only increase from 330 million to 389 million. So, after India and China, Nigeria will be the world's third most populous country in 2050, while the United States will fall to fourth place. Nigeria will have a larger population in 2050 than the United States, which is truly incredible. The most troubling aspect is that Nigeria has a poor reputation for national governance. Religion is also a major issue in the country. 53% of its people believe in Islam, and 44% believe in Christianity. This mix of religions has the potential to divide the country or lead to civil wars.
Nigeria's population has more than doubled in the last 20 years. Is this a special case in Africa? Obviously not. Almost every country south of the Sahara Desert is in this condition. As a result, from 2021 to 2050, Africa's total population will rise from 1.2 billion to at least 2.5 billion people. That is, Africa will account for more than 65 percent of global population growth by 2050. However, in developed countries and regions of Europe and America, the population is either aging at a low rate or growing at a negative rate. Consider this: as Europe and the United States age, who will fill many labor-intensive jobs in society? Of course, they have to depend on the young immigrants. What is their origin? The answer is obvious: the majority of them will come from Africa.
Ordinary people may have a preconceived notion that there are frequent wars in Africa and that the people lack a means of subsistence. This is a faulty notion. Over the last 20 years, Africa's public health has advanced significantly, as has the economic development of many countries. Although civil wars, coups, and new infectious diseases continue to emerge, it has made significant progress in comparison to Africa 20 years ago. The population's average age and level of education are rising, creating a favorable environment for population growth.
In summary, when comparing 2022 to 2050, there are several very clear trends. First, Africa will gradually become a large consumer market, with a new population of 1.3 billion, which is comparable to China's entire population. Second, whether or not Africa is stable, the massive new African population will provide a large number of immigrants to Europe and the United States. If Europe and the United States arm many African dictatorships and create more refugees, they will flood into Europe in large numbers, destroying European society's stability. If there aren't too many upheavals in Africa, European and American countries should have plans in place to gradually absorb African immigrants by providing better economic or educational opportunities. This is preferable to causing millions of people to flee their homes due to war and then flooding into Europe.
Finally, European and American countries must be psychologically prepared for the various cultural shocks brought about by immigrants, which will become more intense as their proportion of the country's population grows. Is it possible for Christians and Catholics to coexist peacefully with Islam when 20% of the people in Germany and France believe in it? This is unquestionably a major issue that must be addressed as soon as possible.
Looking ahead to 2022 from 2050, Africa's new population will pose a significant challenge to Europe and the United States, particularly the aging Europe, which must be addressed. Will Germany or France be able to avoid the dilemma in the future if they significantly increase their birth rates now? Of course, this is the simplest solution, but it is also the most improbable.