June 23, 2020

Andrew Campbell 

On June 23rd, the World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted that global merchandise trade is expected to be driven down by 18.5% in the second quarter of 2020, due to the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak. However, it is above the WTO’s worst predictions.

In April, the global trade body anticipated that volumes in goods would drop by 13% to 32% in 2020. And the WTO believed that according to the current situation, if trade were to grow by 2.5% per quarter in the rest of the year, the optimistic projection of minus 13% could be met, while still worse than the peak of the financial crisis in 2009, which was 12.5%.

Although the WTO previously estimated that the global trade would be rebounded by 21-24% in 2021, weaker-than-expected growth, wider trade restrictions and a probable second wave of epidemic might make it fall short of the 2021 rebounding.