In the Secretary-General’s 2012 report to the UN General Assembly on human rights and migration, Mr. Crépeau cited research which predicts that up to 250 million people might be displaced by climate change by the year 2050.
He wrote that while it is hard to predict precisely the patterns of where climate-change induced migrants will move, current research indicates that much climate related displacement is likely to take place within national borders and that those most acutely vulnerable will often not be in a position to migrate internationally, or will travel only as far as their resources will allow. As a result, he calls for planned and facilitated migration policies, and the strong involvement of all partners, including civil society.
For people living in low-lying island States, the situation is particularly urgent, the Special Rapporteur wrote, as there is scientific evidence that the islands will become uninhabitable as a result of inadequate supply of potable water, along with other environmental concerns.
Mr. Crépeau questions whether a country can legally even exist if it is absorbed, merged and voluntarily or involuntarily dissolved, concluding that the situation of a State abandoned by its population due to the effects of climate change is simply so new “that no clear international legal framework appears to apply.”
“It’s going to take a lot of imagination and political will to be able to negotiate transfers of populations which would be on the massive scale,” Mr. Crépeau told the UN News Centre. “If you wanted to transfer a population of one small island with a few thousand people – that can be negotiated. But I don’t think we’re yet at the level of destination States accepting hundreds of thousands or millions of people.”
“The political climate in most countries in the global North is such that discussing migration is actually very toxic. They are not going to make commitments at the UN in official fora which could backfire in the next election campaign, which is one, two, three, or four years from now.”
Yet for some small islands, these issues are already on the table and will likely get more attention in the coming months. Preparations are well under way for the Third UN Conference on Small Island Developing States, to be held in the Samoan capital, Apia, starting 1 September. The week-long meeting is meant to give countries an opportunity to demonstrate solidarity and partnership with small island developing nations. It is also expected to launch new and concrete partnerships, such as in areas of sustainable tourism and disaster risk reduction.
“It will also allow those small island States that feel that they least contributed to climate change, to try to take a principled stand in the climate change negotiations, and play up this notion of common but differentiated responsibilities,” Mr. Riera said, referring to the common goal of curbing emission gases through different roles among the richer and less economically developed Governments.
The UN is also preparing for a final round of climate change talks in Paris next year to hammer out a legally-binding climate treaty. Ahead of the talks, Mr. Ban will convene a climate summit at UN Headquarters this September, during the high-level opening of the General Assembly.
Ultimately, the outcomes of these conferences depend solely on the Governments of UN Member States.
“The important word in the United Nations is ‘nations’. The UN in itself is nothing more than an international cooperation forum. It’s the nations that can get together and do something,” said Mr. Crépeau. “States can use the vessel to do something, but the vessel in itself can do nothing if the States are opposed to it. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is constantly urging the States to do something on a number of issues. Sometimes they do it, sometimes they don’t.”